Eric Schmidt argues against a ‘Manhattan Project for AGI’

In a coverage paper revealed Wednesday, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, and Middle for AI Security Director Dan Hendrycks mentioned that the U.S. shouldn’t pursue a Manhattan Mission-style push to develop AI methods with “superhuman” intelligence, often known as AGI.

The paper, titled “Superintelligence Technique,” asserts that an aggressive bid by the U.S. to solely management superintelligent AI methods might immediate fierce retaliation from China, doubtlessly within the type of a cyberattack, which might destabilize worldwide relations.

“[A] Manhattan Mission [for AGI] assumes that rivals will acquiesce to a permanent imbalance or omnicide fairly than transfer to stop it,” the co-authors write. “What begins as a push for a superweapon and international management dangers prompting hostile countermeasures and escalating tensions, thereby undermining the very stability the technique purports to safe.”

Co-authored by three extremely influential figures in America’s AI business, the paper comes only a few months after a U.S. congressional fee proposed a “Manhattan Mission-style” effort to fund AGI growth, modeled after America’s atomic bomb program within the Forties. U.S. Secretary of Vitality Chris Wright just lately mentioned the U.S. is at “the beginning of a brand new Manhattan Mission” on AI whereas standing in entrance of a supercomputer web site alongside OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman.

The Superintelligence Technique paper challenges the thought, championed by a number of American coverage and business leaders in latest months, {that a} government-backed program pursuing AGI is one of the best ways to compete with China.

Within the opinion of Schmidt, Wang, and Hendrycks, the U.S. is in one thing of an AGI standoff not dissimilar to mutually assured destruction. In the identical method that international powers don’t search monopolies over nuclear weapons — which might set off a preemptive strike from an adversary — Schmidt and his co-authors argue that the U.S. ought to be cautious about racing towards dominating extraordinarily highly effective AI methods.

Whereas likening AI methods to nuclear weapons could sound excessive, world leaders already take into account AI to be a prime navy benefit. Already, the Pentagon says that AI helps velocity up the navy’s kill chain.

Schmidt et al. introduce an idea they name Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM), wherein governments might proactively disable threatening AI initiatives fairly than ready for adversaries to weaponize AGI.

Schmidt, Wang, and Hendrycks suggest that the U.S. shift its focus from “profitable the race to superintelligence” to growing strategies that deter different international locations from creating superintelligent AI. The co-authors argue the federal government ought to “develop [its] arsenal of cyberattacks to disable threatening AI initiatives” managed by different nations in addition to restrict adversaries’ entry to superior AI chips and open supply fashions.

The co-authors determine a dichotomy that has performed out within the AI coverage world. There are the “doomers,” who imagine that catastrophic outcomes from AI growth are a foregone conclusion and advocate for international locations slowing AI progress. On the opposite aspect, there are the “ostriches,” who imagine nations ought to speed up AI growth and basically simply hope it’ll all work out.

The paper proposes a 3rd method: a measured strategy to growing AGI that prioritizes defensive methods.

That technique is especially notable coming from Schmidt, who has beforehand been vocal concerning the want for the U.S. to compete aggressively with China in growing superior AI methods. Just some months in the past, Schmidt launched an op-ed saying DeepSeek marked a turning level in America’s AI race with China.

The Trump administration appears useless set on pushing forward in America’s AI growth. Nevertheless, because the co-authors observe, America’s selections round AGI don’t exist in a vacuum.

Because the world watches America push the restrict of AI, Schmidt and his co-authors recommend it could be wiser to take a defensive strategy.