Has Elon Musk given up on Tesla’s Grasp Plans, on the electrified economic system, on solar energy as we all know it? From the SpaceX IPO submitting launched this week, it certain looks like it.
A recap for these not enmeshed within the Musk-verse: Tesla has launched 4 Grasp Plans through the years, and whereas particulars have diverse, the by line has been electrification of the economic system. Musk put it greatest in his first version: “the overarching objective of Tesla motors…is to assist expedite the transfer from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economic system in the direction of a photo voltaic electrical economic system.”
However just lately, one in all Musk’s corporations, xAI, has embraced the mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economic system, utilizing dozens of unregulated pure fuel generators to energy its knowledge facilities with plans to purchase $2.8 billion extra, successfully cementing the fossil gasoline’s function within the firm’s AI operations.
It’s a curious flip for a businessman who constructed his empire on clear vitality — and who has no qualms directing his corporations to purchase from each other. SpaceX spent $131 million on 1,279 Cybertrucks, and xAI has spent $697 million within the final two years on Tesla Megapacks, it’s grid-scale battery storage methods that the corporate will use to handle peak hundreds. However to date, xAI hasn’t purchased a materially vital variety of photo voltaic panels from Tesla.
Solar energy isn’t lacking within the SpaceX submitting, it’s simply all targeting house, which the corporate touts as the way forward for knowledge heart energy. Terrestrial photo voltaic garners a number of mentions — not as an influence supply for xAI knowledge facilities however as an alternative to point out how a lot better SpaceX thinks space-based photo voltaic can be.
It’s no secret that Musk and different Silicon Valley executives have change into obsessive about space-based solar energy. SpaceX says that space-based photo voltaic arrays can generate “greater than five-times the vitality” of terrestrial ones because of 24/7 illumination. As AI knowledge facilities have run into opposition right here on Earth, CEOs like Musk have began mulling large server racks in house powered by that 24/7 sunshine. Hammer, meet nail.
Even when SpaceX is ready to deliver down the price of boosting a knowledge heart into orbit, the economics are difficult at greatest. Energy costs for Starlink satellites are multiples increased than what a terrestrial knowledge heart sometimes spends, and defending chips from the trials of house gained’t be straightforward or low cost. It’s additionally not clear whether or not AI coaching may be distributed throughout a number of satellites, leaving a major chunk of AI work earthbound. It’s not only one downside that SpaceX wants to unravel, however many.
It’s doubtless that Musk considers xAI’s present knowledge facilities as stopgaps, that when SpaceX is ready to loft gigawatts value of servers into orbit — most likely just some years away, in his thoughts — he’ll scrap what’s right here on the bottom, pure fuel generators included and never have to consider NIMBYs anymore. The danger, in fact, is that he’s improper.
It’s not simply NIMBYs that Musk is nervous about, although. He’s clearly involved that computing calls for from AI will rapidly outstrip what we are able to present right here on Earth. Sprinkled all through the SEC submitting are references to “terawatt-scale annual AI compute development,” which would require energy to match. That’s a shocking determine when you think about that each one the world’s knowledge facilities use round 40 gigawatts at this time.
That is Musk’s “first ideas” considering in motion. Sooner or later, he assumed the world will want a further terawatt value of compute yearly, and he labored again from there. “We consider that third-party estimates on knowledge heart demand are constrained by the sensible provide limitations that exist in a terrestrial context and the facility scarcity could also be far larger than what analysis estimates recommend,” the corporate argues.
Potential? Certain, I suppose. However contemplate that humanity at this time makes use of about 35,000 terawatt-hours of vitality yearly, or about 4 terawatts on a steady foundation. Vitality demand has risen currently, and for AI, it most likely is in an section of exponential development, which may both proceed or degree off. We’ve got no means of figuring out at this level, but when there’s one factor Musk is nice at, it’s recognizing a pattern at its inflection level and extrapolating wildly.
Right here’s the place Musk’s issues settle again all the way down to Earth. I’m no rocket scientist, however I believe that transport photo voltaic panels on a flatbed truck makes use of much less vitality than sending them into orbit. Plus, space-ready photo voltaic panels will should be manufactured at unprecedented scale. Not insurmountable issues, but in addition possibly a distraction. We’ve barely scratched photo voltaic’s potential right here on Earth, for instance.
The proper doesn’t must be the enemy of the nice. There’s loads of room to enhance issues right here on Earth even whereas we chase after our goals within the stars.
Simply three years in the past, Musk and his colleagues at Tesla launched the “Grasp Plan Half 3,” which thoughtfully outlined a “plan to get rid of fossil fuels.” A great place to begin is perhaps xAI’s knowledge facilities.
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